See Behind
The Spin

More Room To Run For Stocks

by Oliver Silverstein

October 15, 2009

In March of this year, specifically on the 10th, I posted that the Primary Wave 1 down of this mega-bear market looked like it had ended, and that we could expect a magnificent rally as Primary Wave 2 corrected the entire decline from October 2007 to March, 2009.

 

The targets that I posted for the rally were 1,228.73 on the S&P 500, with a time frame of February 2010, to May 2010.

 

Since that time, the S&P 500 has risen from a low of 666.79 to today's close of 1,096.56.

 

That's an impressive gain of about 430 points, or 64%, in approximately 7 months.

 

While that is truly a spectacular rise that ranks in the top 3 rallies of all time, there is still room for stocks to run higher.

 

We are not yet in the ballpark of my anticipated high of 1,228.73. Nor are we in the anticipated time frame.

 

Additionally, we are approaching a period of seasonal strength for stocks. Since 1945, the S&P 500 has only risen an average of 1.6% during the May-through-October period, while averaging a price gain of 7.1% during the November-through-April period.

 

Having almost completed the seasonally weak period of stocks unscathed, the weight of the evidence suggests that the market will be able to approach that 1,228 number in the coming few months.

 

This rally isn't over.

 
 

 

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