It was just over 2 weeks ago, at the beginning of this month, that the S&P500 was at the 1,000 level. The close today was 806.58, a drop of nearly 20% in about 2 weeks.

Panic is again gripping the stock market.

That's the bad news.

The good news, if you choose to call it that, is that the current decline is almost over.

I can assure you that we are not going to string together a dozen days like today and have the market drop to zero.

With my read of the technical indicators, we are very close (like within a few days) from a tradable bottom.

This will NOT be the final bottom of the bear market.

Using Elliot Wave (which is just one technical tool out of many) we are just about finished with minor wave 5 of intermediate wave 3 of primary wave 1.

As such, I am looking for a multiple week intermediate wave 4 to be followed by a multiple week intermediate wave 5 to finish up primary wave 1 down. Then we will have an approximately year long primary wave 2 rally up.

Timewise, I would envision intermediate wave 4 starting in the next few days and lasting through the Holidays (the much talked about "Santa Claus Rally"), then a couple of months of downward movement to finish up intermediate wave 5 of primary wave 1.

From there (late winter) it's off to the races in primary wave 2 up which could last about a year.