See Behind
The Spin

The Warning Bells Are Ringing Loudly For the Stock Market

by Oliver Silverstein

April 23, 2010

Just 10 short days ago I wrote about the second appearance of the VIX sell signal this year.

 

What has the market done since then? Answer: gone higher.

 

Does that mean that we've had a failed signal?

 

No, it doesn't.

 

I mentioned before that this signal is not directly correlated on a day-to-day basis with market action. If the sell signal appears today, it does not mean that the market will fall tomorrow.

 

The market closed today at it very top tick: 1,217.28. Bullish exuberance reigns supreme.

 

Alan Greenspan once warned of irrational exuberance many years ago.

 

When I review the many current technical indicators, I cannot help but think of ole Alan's famous words. I've never seen so much irrational exuberance.

 

In basic terms, the stock market is at overbought extremes that only occur once every few decades.

 

Even if the VIX sell signal had not appeared, I'd be calling for a pullback.

 

Even if we weren't in the time frame that I anticipated would bring about the final high for Primary Wave 2, I'd be calling for a pullback.

 

Even if we weren't ever so close to my target for the top of this year+ rally, I'd be calling for a pullback.

 

Some of the technical indicators I'm looking at are even more overbought now than they were at the peak of the Nasdaq bubble in 2000.

 

The warning bells are ringing everywhere. Give the VIX sell signal another week before you claim it was a failed signal.

 

I'm more convinced than ever that the anticipated decline is going to start within days. Markets simply cannot remain this overbought.

 

 

 
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